NY-21: Tonko Leads Primary Field

Global Strategy Group for Paul Tonko (6/19-22, registered voters):

Paul Tonko (D): 42

Tracey Brooks (D): 14

Phil Steck (D): 6

Undecided: 37

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Tonko, a former Assemblyman, has a big advantage in name recognition (56%) compared to former Hillary aide Brooks (16%) and Albany County Legislator Phil Steck (14%). The poll didn’t include several other candidates who have also signaled their intentions to run, but it appears that Tonko has the inside track to win the nomination for this D+8.7 open seat.

Primary: September 9th

4 thoughts on “NY-21: Tonko Leads Primary Field”

  1. The forgotten primary, with something like 8 credible candidates, although these 3 are the frontrunners.

    I’m surprised Steck is so low. He got the Albany County Democratic Committee endorsement. (He’s a Responsible Plan endorser and has come out in favor of single-payer.) (Darius Shahinfar, not polled, is also a Responsible Plan endorser.)

    Brooks has the NOW endorsement, and Tonko just got the SEIU endorsement. All indicators that any of them would be at least reasonably progressive.

  2. is that’s a poll of registered voters not likely voters. This is likely to be a very low turnout affair so I don’t think a poll of registered voters is accurate. Tonko clearly starts out with the name rec but Brooks has a strong base of support and Steck has a lot of local progressives fired up.

    I think this is still a wide open race. I hope Steck or Brooks wins.

  3. There are 150 assembly members meaning that Tonko represented, at best, 20% of the district.  A 56% name recognition factor (and 42% of the vote) seems way too high.  Unfortunately, in the “three men in a room” concept, nobody but Sheldon Silver gets much publicity.

    The order may be right but Tonko paid for this survey and I’d take it with a box of salt (not a grain).

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