Global Strategy Group for Paul Tonko (6/19-22, registered voters):
Paul Tonko (D): 42
Tracey Brooks (D): 14
Phil Steck (D): 6
Undecided: 37
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Tonko, a former Assemblyman, has a big advantage in name recognition (56%) compared to former Hillary aide Brooks (16%) and Albany County Legislator Phil Steck (14%). The poll didn’t include several other candidates who have also signaled their intentions to run, but it appears that Tonko has the inside track to win the nomination for this D+8.7 open seat.
Primary: September 9th
The forgotten primary, with something like 8 credible candidates, although these 3 are the frontrunners.
I’m surprised Steck is so low. He got the Albany County Democratic Committee endorsement. (He’s a Responsible Plan endorser and has come out in favor of single-payer.) (Darius Shahinfar, not polled, is also a Responsible Plan endorser.)
Brooks has the NOW endorsement, and Tonko just got the SEIU endorsement. All indicators that any of them would be at least reasonably progressive.
Where do these Dems running to replace him stand on the issue?
is that’s a poll of registered voters not likely voters. This is likely to be a very low turnout affair so I don’t think a poll of registered voters is accurate. Tonko clearly starts out with the name rec but Brooks has a strong base of support and Steck has a lot of local progressives fired up.
I think this is still a wide open race. I hope Steck or Brooks wins.
There are 150 assembly members meaning that Tonko represented, at best, 20% of the district. A 56% name recognition factor (and 42% of the vote) seems way too high. Unfortunately, in the “three men in a room” concept, nobody but Sheldon Silver gets much publicity.
The order may be right but Tonko paid for this survey and I’d take it with a box of salt (not a grain).